May 04, 2018

“The NFL Draft” – Annie’s Newsletter, May 4th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 23 THE NFL DRAFT A grand decision experiment, wrapped in a pageant Last week, the NFL drafted newly eligible players for the 2018 season. You could argue that the NFL Draft is the most maddening sporting event: no one will […]

April 27, 2018

“Epistemic Spillovers” – Annie’s Newsletter, April 27th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 22 EPISTEMIC SPILLOVERS “I don’t like that plumber’s bumper sticker. I’m sure I can install my own toilet.” Last week, I wrote about the difference between epistemic bubbles (lack of exposure to information from opposing-view sources) and echo chambers (identification […]

April 23, 2018

Self-Driven to Distraction – Smerconish.com

Self-Driven to Distraction – Annie Duke for Smerconish.com In late March, there were two tragic auto accidents, five days apart, both involving autonomous cars. In Tempe, Arizona, on the night of March 18, an autonomous Uber vehicle hit and killed a pedestrian pushing a bicycle outside the crossing lines. During the morning of March 23, […]

April 20, 2018

“Madeline Albright: Diplomacy is not like Chess” – Annie’s Newsletter, April 20th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 21 MADELEINE ALBRIGHT:  DIPLOMACY IS NOT LIKE CHESS Skill-based decision making, but with unpredictability like billiards (and poker) In a recent interview, former Secretary of State @Madeleine Albright commented on how people who compare international relations to chess may be overlooking the […]

April 13, 2018

Bad News in the Event of a Zombie Apocalypse – Annie’s Newsletter, April 13th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 20 BAD NEWS IN THE EVENT OF A ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE: Overconfidence by inexperienced doctors diagnosing zombie infections — When they tell you “overconfidence is an issue everywhere,” they mean EVERYWHERE Experience can certainly help us improve our competence. And that’s a […]

April 10, 2018

“Turkeys Can Fly” – Annie’s Newsletter, April 6th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 19  TURKEYS CAN FLY! Are turkeys the suited connectors of the animal world? A reader calibrates my belief with this YouTube video (If there’s a WKRP in Cincinnati reboot in development, take note!) In Thinking in Bets, I used a famous WKRP in Cincinnati episode […]

March 30, 2018

“Rebellion Against The Bots” – Annie’s Newsletter, March 30th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 18   REBELLION AGAINST THE BOTS! A new study exposed Twitter users to opposing-view bots: It didn’t end well Left to our own devices, we aren’t likely to seek out views that oppose our core beliefs.”An opposing view? No thanks. […]

March 23, 2018

“When Underdogs Win, How Much Do Forecasters Lose” – Annie’s Newsletter, March 23rd, 2018

Volume 1, Number 17 Decision strategy and its components: human behavior, science, uncertainty, failure, collaboration, dissent, exchange of ideas, probabilistic thinking, and anything I think might attract the attention of people interested in those subjects. WHEN UNDERDOGS WIN, HOW MUCH DO FORECASTERS LOSE? A view from Nate Silver, and why predictions are treated differently in […]

March 20, 2018

Enjoy A Free Sneak Peek My Audiobook!

My gift to you:  Please listen to the first part of my new book, Thinking in Bets, for free! If you like enjoy this preview, you may purchase this audiobook at anyplace audiobooks are sold, or click here!  

March 16, 2018

“New Study Proves It: We’re Pretty Easy To Fool” – Annie’s Newsletter, March 16th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here NEW STUDY PROVES IT: WE’RE PRETTY EASY TO FOOL False news laps the truth on Twitter Last week @ScienceMagazine published a large-scale investigation of how information spreads on Twitter. The study spanned Twitter’s entire history, covering 125,000 rumor cascades. The primary conclusion, heavily reported, was that […]