July 16, 2018

“Bottlenecks” — Annie’s Newsletter, July 16, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 32 BOTTLENECKS If they can stop Elon Musk, they can stop anyone The necessity of identifying and solving for bottlenecks For several days, @ElonMusk attempted to come up with ways to rescue the children and their coach trapped in the cave in […]

July 06, 2018

“Mangling the Message” — Annie’s Newsletter, July 6, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 31 MANGLING THE MESSAGE – Bloomberg.com drops the ball on communicating the probabilistic nature of World Cup predictions Predictions are probabilistic in nature. This means that, though the probabilities should play out over the long run, a single result doesn’t […]

June 29, 2018

“Political Parties Drive Moral Judgement” — Annie’s Newsletter, June 29, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 30 POLITICAL PARTIES DRIVE MORAL JUDGMENT – Recent studies and examples – The new wrinkle: outgroup cues are particularly strong @DaveCiuk just published a paper in Research & Politics (@Res_Pol) about how people shift their moral judgments based on partisan cues. Intuitively, it feels […]

June 22, 2018

“A Pair of Recent Articles on Poker’s Lessons for Decision Making Amid Uncertainty” & Much More

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 29 TALKS AT GOOGLE My recent conversation in Mountainview I had the opportunity to have an amazing conversation with Jordan Thibodeau as part of “Talks at Google.” It was a deep dive on Thinking in Bets. I’m sharing the video of the conversation […]

June 15, 2018

“The Long Way Home – And Back” & Much More

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 28 THE LONG WAY FROM HOME – AND BACK Notes from the St. Paul’s reunion (Form of ’83) and baccalaureate address (Form of ’18) I recently had the pleasure of celebrating two events at St. Paul’s School in New Hampshire. […]

June 04, 2018

The Reading Lists – Annie’s Q&A on books, authors and “The Unsolvable Problem”

I recently had the opportunity to do a Q&A with Phil Treagus, who founded a terrific website, TheReadingLists.com. Phil is a self-professed “book nerd” and started the site to “inspire more people to pick up great books and use them as the stepping stones they are to achieving huge success and having massive world impact.” […]

June 01, 2018

“A Good Framework For Two Kinds of Uncertainty” – Annie’s Newsletter, June 1st, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 27 A GOOD FRAMEWORK FOR TWO KINDS OF UNCERTAINTY: Aleatory (luck) & Epistemic (hidden information) – Explained in a paper by Craig Fox and Gulden Ulkumen h/t @CSBowles After I appeared on the Rationally Speaking podcast with @JuliaGalef, a listener named Stuart Bowles (@CSBowles) […]

May 25, 2018

“Henry Kissinger Warns That A.I. Could End Human Enlightenment” – Annie’s Newsletter, May 25th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 26 HENRY KISSINGER WARNS THAT A.I. COULD END HUMAN ENLIGHTENMENT What’s the likelihood he’s correct? Henry Kissinger recently wrote a thoughtful piece about artificial intelligence in @TheAtlantic. The article offers a dark view, suggesting that we are completely unprepared for the impact AI […]

May 18, 2018

“Group Decision Disaster (Squared)” – Annie’s Newsletter, May 18th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 25 GROUP DECISION DISASTER (SQUARED): Slow process (rarely meeting) + slow transmission of information (majority-rule decisions)  @QuartzAtWork published a great piece last week, “How to design teams to improve almost any decision-making process” by Oliver Staley (@OStaley). The piece focuses on three elements […]

May 11, 2018

“David Hasselhoff may have been ahead of the curve on self-driving cars” – Annie’s Newsletter, May 11th, 2018

Sign Up to Receive Annie Duke’s Weekly E-Newsletter and Updates Here Newsletter Volume 1, Number 24 DAVID HASSELHOFF MAY HAVE BEEN AHEAD OF THE CURVE ON SELF-DRIVING CARS What’s next: beachwear that helps you run in slow-motion? Last Friday, May 4, an automobile accident in Chandler, Arizona, became international news. Thankfully, the smashed-up cars made […]